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Prediction markets for Nobel Prize in Literature

Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1621562

OptionProbability

Can Xue

Cristina Rivera Garza

Haruki Murakami

Mircea Cărtărescu

Enrique Vila-Matas

Gerald Murnane

Amitav Ghosh

Anne Carson

César Aira

Alexis Wright

Salman Rushdie

Elena Ferrante

Jamaica Kincaid

Michel Houellebecq

Margaret Atwood

Thomas Pynchon

Christian Kracht

Raul Zurita

Péter Nádas

Stephen King

39

34

31

30

29

27

26

26

26

26

25

25

22

21

20

20

18

18

16

13

When will Mircea Cărtărescu win a Nobel Prize in Literature (2025-2030)?

Jan 5, 8:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

132367

OptionProbability

Not by 2030

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2025

60

8

8

8

8

6

1

What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2026?

Oct 14, 3:26 AMNov 2, 4:59 AM

18780

OptionProbability

Announced before the end of October 2026

Can speak English

60 or older

70 or older

Writes primarily in a language other than English

normally seen in glasses

went to a school in europe at any point in life

Male

speaks Chinese

Singer/Songwriter

fled their home country

Originally from Africa

Award delayed

Originally from France

Originally from Spain

net worth over ten million USD at time of declaration

Award not accepted by winner

Given to more than one person

Award not given out

Posthumous

94

82

79

69

61

54

54

49

24

21

20

17

17

17

17

17

10

10

4

2

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:13 PMOct 16, 6:59 AM

12%chance

8535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

26.4%chance

19439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

932

Will the 2026 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient be a woman?

Oct 10, 1:41 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

50.2%chance

11429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

100

Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Mar 23, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.34%chance

8156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

112

Will a comic book person win the nobel prize for literature before 2043?

Nov 25, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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