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Top stories

Netanyahu Praises Israeli Arms in India’s Operation Sindoor, Seeks Wider Ties

Authors

4

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Nobel Prize

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Jan 9, 1:47 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

6%chance

128152547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

1442

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.97%chance

7443364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

606

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.93%chance

10922033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

980

968

Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

Jan 26, 12:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.09%chance

11111401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

1558

Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

May 30, 6:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

8%chance

4911094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

508

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Robin Hanson, they will win a Nobel Prize in Economics.

Mar 15, 12:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.2%chance

86295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

847

Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?

Dec 12, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.9%chance

393975

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

457

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

46.98%chance

331926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

691

Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100?

Dec 22, 7:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.58%chance

331231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

1154

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.97%chance

23632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

776

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

27.03%chance

17368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

941

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