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Top stories

Armenia and Azerbaijan Lead Eight-Nation Push to Nominate Trump for 2025 Nobel Peace Prize

Armenia and Azerbaijan Lead Eight-Nation Push to Nominate Trump for 2025 Nobel Peace Prize

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Nobel

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.98%chance

132110201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8161

474

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

Jul 28, 10:19 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.86%chance

10434210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11424

837

Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

May 30, 6:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3.98%chance

6926195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

909

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

12825519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

639

Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2027?

Oct 9, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.75%chance

1616921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25685

9005

Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

Jan 26, 12:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.92%chance

11312580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1577

1571

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

17.3%chance

257609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2186

457

Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?

Dec 12, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.07%chance

414045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

527

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100?

Dec 22, 7:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.44%chance

361493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

1005

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.18%chance

26717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

792

Who will win a 2027 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences?

Oct 15, 2:17 PMOct 11, 6:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Ariel Pakes

Steven T. Berry

Susan Athey

Ernst Fehr

Richard Blundell

David Autor

Matthew Rabin

Partha Dasgupta

Hal Varian

Janet Currie

7

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

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