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Top stories

Sally Rooney to Donate TV Royalties to UK-Banned Palestine Action Amid BBC Pressure; Christy Moore Supports Ireland Bank Bond Campaign

Sally Rooney to Donate TV Royalties to UK-Banned Palestine Action Amid BBC Pressure; Christy Moore Supports Ireland Bank Bond Campaign

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Normal People

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

1185

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.94%chance

10423726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9951

741

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32%chance

375156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

980

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

May 27, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.1%chance

242892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms

Feb 7, 8:33 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

23.49%chance

71688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

554

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Sep 2, 7:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.94%chance

31928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

971

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.66%chance

33632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

960

General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?

Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

15274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027

Jun 19, 5:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.77%chance

6221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

919

Will a study be done comparing blood/tissue microplastics lvls of frequent coffee drinkers vs "normal people" by EOY2027

Sep 14, 6:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.14%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

56

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