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Prediction markets for North Atlantic Treaty

Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?

Dec 15, 1:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4.56%chance

235095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4575

219

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Mar 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

17.45%chance

544532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

60

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213770

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

62

54

54

49

44

43

40

36

34

17

Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 3:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.61%chance

251075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

894

A NATO member officially announces intention to leave NATO before 2026

Mar 17, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10%chance

19829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8.88%chance

14569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

By the end of 2025, will a NATO country announce that it will use AI for military defense decisions?

Jul 28, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.33%chance

11436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

538

19

What is the next country to leave NATO?

Nov 12, 3:14 PMNov 19, 10:59 PM

21425

OptionProbability

Other

United States

Hungary

France

Turkey

Slovakia

31

28

13

12

9

7

NATO stocks (Permanent)

Nov 27, 11:09 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10311

OptionProbability

NO

YES

336

150

Will Slovenia hold a referendum on NATO membership or military expenditure by the end of April 2026?

Jul 10, 2:35 PMApr 30, 10:00 PM

26.42%chance

387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

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