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Prediction markets for Not of Standard Quality

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57%chance

608412049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17525

7394

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Oct 4, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

7612181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

680

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

79

72

67

63

56

49

30

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.34%chance

273944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

926

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.87%chance

222412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

466

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

Jun 18, 12:35 AMJun 17, 7:00 PM

86.79%chance

191099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

935

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.78%chance

11875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will Amit have visible abs by April 25, 2026?

May 7, 9:19 PMApr 26, 12:00 AM

80.08%chance

6261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

50

SF Air Quality Significantly improves in 2024

Mar 6, 2:58 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

29.83%chance

13245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

938

Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026?

Apr 30, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

6100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will ACL continue to utilize ARR as the sole method of submission in 2025?

Jan 4, 4:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.74%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

92

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