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Prediction markets for Not Safe For Work

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will an OpenAI model design an improved version of an existing drug in 2025?

Jan 19, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.31%chance

232010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2112

473

Will OpenAI abandon the goal of building AGI before 2030?

Mar 8, 6:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.22%chance

301364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1518

869

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.98%chance

351217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

912

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.04%chance

201201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

686

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028?

Nov 27, 7:03 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.74%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

948

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

134

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7135

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

56

29

11

4

Reliable Commercial Roof Repairs & Metal Roofers

Aug 2, 9:17 AMDec 31, 9:16 AM

44.8%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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