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Prediction markets for Note 22

Will Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy meet on August 22?

Aug 17, 2:11 AMAug 22, 9:59 PM

1%chance

4319532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?

Jul 11, 10:29 PMNov 7, 5:59 AM

162493

OptionProbability

Robert F Kennedy, Jr.

Gretchen Whitmer

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Michelle Obama

Gavin Newsom

Joe Biden

Hillary Clinton

59

57

57

56

50

34

28

26

Will John Fetterman vote to confirm at least half of Trump's cabinet?

Feb 5, 6:41 AMNov 2, 3:59 AM

68.58%chance

10275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

68

Brazilian Congressman Glauber Braga's mandate revoked by Chamber of Deputies?

Apr 30, 11:45 PMOct 1, 11:43 PM

53.04%chance

247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

204

Will the Clay Foundation adjust for inflation?

Nov 16, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.94%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

112

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