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Prediction markets for Note While Reading

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

560183977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4649

4080

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.01%chance

336127763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7827

467

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.76%chance

21747061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1870

734

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

8.54%chance

11720026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4570

1869

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.58%chance

255060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

784

Will anyone have their mind read without their prior consent before 2030?

Nov 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.96%chance

332096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

835

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Nov 1, 6:07 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM

21.11%chance

16658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

895

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

851

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

1119

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