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Prediction markets for Note While Reading

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6715

3343

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.68%chance

24770128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

733

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.42%chance

277044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7798

3832

Will anyone have their mind read without their prior consent before 2030?

Nov 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.22%chance

342100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

839

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4 [metaculus]

Jul 30, 4:08 PMJul 1, 4:04 PM

9961

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

63

59

55

52

50

48

35

23

12

5

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Nov 1, 6:07 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM

21.11%chance

16658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

895

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.77%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

1102

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