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Prediction markets for Note While Reading

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.79%chance

793414191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14084

2045

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

35.43%chance

282109561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

902

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

327878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8632

3470

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

214219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

839

Will anyone have their mind read without their prior consent before 2030?

Nov 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.22%chance

342100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

839

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

52.87%chance

51146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

944

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Nov 1, 6:07 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM

22.04%chance

16708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

909

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.48%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

774

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

11170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

1092

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