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Prediction markets for Notes

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]

May 22, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

17630333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3450

1406

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media

Apr 3, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.64%chance

25775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

895

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 26, 5:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Who is Tsugumi Ohba, the writer of Death Note?

Jun 20, 6:05 PMJun 21, 6:04 PM

286

OptionProbability

Hiroshi Gamo

Other

Toshio Okada

Takeshi Obata

50

29

12

10

Will Roam Research notes still exist by EOY2033?

Jan 20, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo before he dies?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMJun 21, 6:02 PM

45.25%chance

210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the identity of the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be kept a secret successfully until after they die?

Jun 20, 6:03 PMJun 20, 6:03 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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