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Prediction markets for Notes

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]

May 22, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

17530283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3400

1415

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

206464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12015

8196

Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media

Apr 3, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.97%chance

23769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

890

Will ICE cause an incident of note at the Olympics?

Jan 29, 5:06 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

28%chance

21533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

When will a spot Solana ETF be approved? [Mod Note: This should require both the 19b-4 and S-1 Filings]

Jan 12, 2:22 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

4242

OptionProbability

2025 Q4

2025 Q3

Other

2028 H2

2027 H2

2028 H1

2024 Q4

2025 Q2

2026 Q1

2027 H1

2025 Q1

2026 Q2

2026 H2

23

22

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

4

2

2

2

Will Roam Research notes still exist by EOY2033?

Jan 20, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be revealed by the end of 2030?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.82%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo before he dies?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMJun 21, 6:02 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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