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Prediction markets for Notes

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3139

336

Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]

May 22, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

17530283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3400

1415

Will the new TikTok Notes app be more popular than Instagram by the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.39%chance

267238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3203

712

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.29%chance

206464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12015

8196

Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media

Apr 3, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.97%chance

23769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

890

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

Is the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) a man?

Jun 20, 6:06 PMJun 21, 6:06 PM

82.12%chance

4196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?

Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.12%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo by the end of 2028?

Jun 20, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo before he dies?

Jun 20, 6:02 PMJun 21, 6:02 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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