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Prediction markets for Notion AI

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

8011179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

1138

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.29%chance

224320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2687

574

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.25%chance

171859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

647

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.18%chance

151754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

652

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

May 7, 8:59 PMJan 1, 9:15 PM

10245

OptionProbability

No established term by EOY 2026

AI-induced psychosis

Other

AI parasitism

Cyberpsychosis

ChatGPT-induced psychosis

Sycophancy Syndrome

Simulacra Syndrome

Promptosis

To Be "Glazed"

48

28

6

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

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