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Prediction markets for Notion AI

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.12%chance

7910829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4258

871

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.29%chance

214300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2687

574

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.47%chance

133284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

523

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.69%chance

161559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

749

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.23%chance

13367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

886

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

May 7, 8:59 PMJan 1, 9:15 PM

10245

OptionProbability

No established term by EOY 2026

AI-induced psychosis

Other

AI parasitism

Cyberpsychosis

ChatGPT-induced psychosis

Sycophancy Syndrome

Simulacra Syndrome

Promptosis

To Be "Glazed"

48

28

6

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.61%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

281

79

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

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