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Prediction markets for Notion AI

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.26%chance

8111182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2852

1141

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.26%chance

234344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2692

574

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.05%chance

181870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

644

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.18%chance

151754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

652

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

May 7, 8:59 PMJan 1, 9:15 PM

10250

OptionProbability

No established term by EOY 2026

AI-induced psychosis

AI parasitism

Other

Cyberpsychosis

ChatGPT-induced psychosis

Sycophancy Syndrome

Simulacra Syndrome

Promptosis

To Be "Glazed"

44

33

5

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.02%chance

7173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

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