Nouméa Accord News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Fair elections in 2028

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A major war in Asia occurs

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump says a racial slur

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

Approval < 25%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

New national park created

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Record level unemployment

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump and Melania divorce

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

US Invasion of any North/South American country

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

"covfefe" posted again

Cannabis is federally legalized

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

YES

Under 101 cases

101 - 1000 cases

1001 - 10,000 cases

10,001 - 100,000 cases

100,001 - 1,000,000 cases

1,000,001 - 10,000,000 cases

The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025

The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital

Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist

The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers

The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs

I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data

Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast

The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)

Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025

The company will include at least one image on its website

The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU

The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA

The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will have at least 100 employees

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher

The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)

The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)

The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities

The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model

The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders

The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers

I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)

The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025

The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)

The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier

The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)

The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability

The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input

The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment

I’ll work there (@mr_mino)

The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment

The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/

The company will be involved in a lawsuit

It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company

The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher

The company will make a GAN

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought

It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)

The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms

It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so

The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers

The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website

The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources

Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company

The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)

The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology

The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory

Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen

The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines

The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages

The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system

The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system

I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing

Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players

There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members

The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll

The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024

The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations

The company will be acquired by another company

Elon musk will be an investor of the company

The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)

The company will release an app available on iPhone or android

The company will change its name

The company will be merged with or acquired by another company

The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company

The company will build their own AI chips

Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW

The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals

The company will declare bankruptcy

The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract

The company will be publicly traded

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

I'll work there (@AndrewG)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW

The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

YES

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

NO

It will have Audio(Input) modality

It will have Audio(Output) modality

It can score Bronze or higher on IMO

It will have Video(Input) modality

It will have been released in H2 2025

It will have Video(Output) modality

Its main name is GPT-5

It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

It has an anthropomorphic name

Wilful killing

Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;

Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...

Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;

Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;

Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...

Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;

Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...

Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;

Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;

Employing poison or poisoned weapons;

Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;

Taking of hostages.

Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;

Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...

Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;

Declaring that no quarter will be given;

Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...

Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;

Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;

The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...

Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...

Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;

Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;

Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;

Explain "Krantz" thoroughly enough on the internet, that the idea itself becomes alive and takes over the world.

Solve education

Other

Travel to the Network State School

Go to LessOnline and Manifest

Go to Contact in the Desert.

Go to the Monroe Institute.

Work for society library.

Focus on finding a life partner

Recieve a grant to create an open-source home school program where parents and kids work collectively to create lessons and earn crypto credentials.

Start a podcast with livestream forecasting and collective reasoning.

Go on Lex Fridman and explain how to solve the control problem by solving education.

Publish an alignment plan

Find a new job

Travel to a new country

Learn a new language

Go on Liv Boeree's Win/Win podcast and explain how to kill Moloch by solving the control problem, by solving education.

Join or start an intentional living community of the rationalist variety.

Write a book

Code a indie video game

Start a religion that worships math, logic and constitutions of propositions as mechanisms that optimize communication, which is good. A Kant cult.

Run for political office as an open source Manchurian candidate that acts in accordance with how the network state votes.

Play poker professionally.

It includes 3-D animated media

It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities

It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)

It includes a new comic book series

A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)

It includes at least an hour of animated media

It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation

It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters