NSA News

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8921183

OptionVotes

YES

13505

8680

@teortaxesTex' DeepSeek V4 predictions thread

Sep 26, 11:15 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

224349

OptionProbability

uses some non-AdamW optimizer

Some image input (multimodality)

>= 50% on TerminalBench (https://www.tbench.ai/leaderboard)

>= 60% on BrowseComp (https://www.kaggle.com/benchmarks/openai/browsecomp)

1M+ Context

>=25T pretraining tokens

>= 73% on SWE-Bench Verified (according to epoch.ai)

>= 2 shared experts

Some variation of NSA (Native Sparse Attention)

>=16 active experts

Gemini 2.5 Pro tier or higher on FictionBench (90.6%+ at 192k)

>=512 experts

intra-expert communication

DS-MoE with adaptative expert count

>= 44% on Humanity's Last Exam (text only) at scale.com leaderboard

DeepSeek reports some results with a full-blown deep research agent, and emphasizes that this is the intended use-mode

>=52B active parameters

>=1.5T parameters

Releases before November

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

212211

OptionVotes

YES

1739

575

🚺Which of these positions that have never been women will have their first by the end of 2040? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 1, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221634

OptionProbability

Chief of Staff to the President

NASA administrator

Senate Majority Leader

Senate Minority Leader

Director General of the BBC (british broadcasting corporation)

USA President

Secretary General of the UN

NSA director

Secretary of the Treasury

CEO of Google

FBI director

Chief Justice of Supreme Court

Chairman/Chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

US Secretary of Defense

Chief of Staff of the Army

Head Coach of a Major League Baseball team

Cardinal in the Catholic Church

Pope

100

Will any major three letter USA federal agency stop operating before 2045, if yes, which one first?

Aug 27, 7:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19885

OptionProbability

DOC

DHS

Other

FDA

CDC

DOE

NSA

ICE

DEA

SEC

CIA

FBI

DOD

FCC

DOJ

DOT

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

YES

320

247

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?

Mar 14, 11:03 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

25%chance

8147

OptionVotes

YES

253

123

Will there be a first female director of the FBI before the NSA?

Apr 1, 5:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.83%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

209

155

NSA News

Prediction markets for NSA

Prediction markets for NSA

Prediction markets for NSA

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

@teortaxesTex' DeepSeek V4 predictions thread

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

🚺Which of these positions that have never been women will have their first by the end of 2040? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will any major three letter USA federal agency stop operating before 2045, if yes, which one first?

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?

Will there be a first female director of the FBI before the NSA?

Latest stories