O1 News

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

Nov 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161504

OptionProbability

Transformer-based architecture

Developed by OpenAI

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Developed by Google Deepmind

Over 1T parameters

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

Nov 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71238

OptionProbability

Over 1T parameters

Transformer-based architecture

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Developed by OpenAI

Developed by Google Deepmind

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.14%chance

11872

OptionVotes

YES

1228

814

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

1027

974

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

48.51%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

1030

971

Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?

Oct 26, 11:24 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

60.12%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

130

How many parameters does the o1-mini model have?

Dec 4, 10:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

496

OptionProbability

>40B

2B<X<8B

8B<X<20B

20B<X<40B

Other

<2B

Which was more significant: the o1 announcement in September, or the o3 announcement?

Dec 23, 4:33 PM

250

Which was more significant: the Sora announcement, or the o1 announcement in September?

Dec 23, 4:31 PM

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By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

How many parameters does the o1-mini model have?

Which was more significant: the o1 announcement in September, or the o3 announcement?

Which was more significant: the Sora announcement, or the o1 announcement in September?

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