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Prediction markets for O1

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.76%chance

147124531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14625

9119

Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?

Sep 18, 2:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.99%chance

204175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2290

437

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.12%chance

343790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

771

Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)

Jan 14, 12:36 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

45.65%chance

131852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

916

Will "OpenAI o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 13, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.06%chance

71050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

917

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.13%chance

10822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

849

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?

Oct 26, 11:24 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

60.12%chance

12248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Will "Why is o1 so deceptive?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 28, 2:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

3153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

How many parameters does the o1-mini model have?

Dec 4, 10:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

386

OptionProbability

2B<X<8B

8B<X<20B

20B<X<40B

Other

>40B

<2B

21

21

21

21

10

6

Will "o1 is a bad idea" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 12, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

95

Will "The o1 System Card Is Not About o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 5:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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