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Prediction markets for O1 Preview

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

Two+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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