OptionProbability
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
After 2030
2024
2030
34
33
13
7
6
5
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2290
437
It will have a variant with over 400 billion parameters (does not need to release immediately)
It will have a variant with over 1 trillion parameters (does not need to release immediately)
Some version of it will score better on GPQA than o1-preview (73% pass@1)
It will be able to output audio
Some version of it will score better on SWE-Bench Verified than Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October version)
It will be able to output images
Gets the high score on Humanity's Last Exam
Manifold will think any variant is the best model released up to that point in a poll
Reaches Highest Arena Score on Chatbot Arena
Gets the high score on FrontierMath
Non-mini Llama 4 released by April 4, 2025
Meta share price reaches ATH within 24 hours of the first release of a non-mini Llama 4
100
76
71
69
24
16
14
8
0
1218
821
230
47
323
83
