o3 News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

135380527

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Gemini 4

GPT-6

Any model announced before 2027

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

OpenAI o4

Gemini 3.5

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.6

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.8

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Opus 4.7

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

7918625

OptionVotes

YES

1946

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

YES

1646

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

Mar 8, 11:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.08%chance

337343

OptionVotes

YES

4372

234

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

154860

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029 or Later

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.73%chance

153080

OptionVotes

YES

2885

347

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121409

OptionProbability

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.12%chance

71161

OptionVotes

YES

3991

2255

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

Feb 21, 7:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

65.58%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

138

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

1020

885

Which was more significant: the o1 announcement in September, or the o3 announcement?

Dec 23, 4:33 PM

250

o3 News

Prediction markets for o3

Prediction markets for o3

Prediction markets for o3

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Which was more significant: the o1 announcement in September, or the o3 announcement?

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