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Prediction markets for Object

Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?

Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.65%chance

61526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

541

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will any human-made object go faster than 1% of the speed of light before 2060?

Mar 1, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.72%chance

341247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

812

Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?

Apr 17, 2:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.32%chance

231131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

914

Will any billionaire be killed by an asteroid or other natural space object before 2050?

Dec 22, 8:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.71%chance

16682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

960

Will any anthropogenic object be further from Earth than Voyager 1 before 2060?

Dec 12, 4:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

58.17%chance

23576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

864

Will "Auditing language models for hidden objectives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 5, 10:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.34%chance

3501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

938

Will any human-created object reach 1% of light speed before 2033?

Nov 20, 5:20 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

13.38%chance

16411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

952

Will there be 30,000 objects launched into outer space before Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?

Jan 8, 3:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.54%chance

13368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

949

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

145

When (if ever) will objective-collapse theory overthrow quantum theory?

Nov 12, 7:00 PMNov 13, 6:46 PM

2229

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2045

Before the end of 2040

Before the end of 2035

Before the end of 2030

15

13

10

7

New Horizons does a flyby that gets a good image of another Kuiper Belt Object (see example)?

Sep 20, 11:26 PMDec 25, 12:22 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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