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Prediction markets for Object

How many celestial objects on a collision course with Earth will be discovered in 2025?

Dec 26, 12:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1210641

OptionProbability

1 or more

2 or more

3 or more

5 or more

8 or more

40

21

9

7

5

Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?

Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.65%chance

61526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

541

Will the first publicly purchasable humanoid robot have built in object interaction restrictions?

Jan 22, 5:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.28%chance

251253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

923

Will any human-made object go faster than 1% of the speed of light before 2060?

Mar 1, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.09%chance

341209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1275

790

Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of Chinese origin?

Feb 11, 3:21 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.79%chance

211171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

804

Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?

Apr 17, 2:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.61%chance

221081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

864

Will any anthropogenic object be further from Earth than Voyager 1 before 2060?

Dec 12, 4:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

58.17%chance

23576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

864

Will any human-created object reach 1% of light speed before 2033?

Nov 20, 5:20 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

13.38%chance

16411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

952

Will there be 30,000 objects launched into outer space before Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?

Jan 8, 3:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.15%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

944

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will "Auditing language models for hidden objectives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 5, 10:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.94%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10076

9896

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