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Prediction markets for Oct

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]

Oct 27, 5:21 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

11.88%chance

539459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?

Jan 19, 4:50 PMOct 6, 9:59 PM

98.35%chance

635499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1557

60

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Oct 29, 3:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.96%chance

293407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2409

671

Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 9:00 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

10%chance

272931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

1123

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

58.31%chance

472415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

717

Effective Altruist purge at Jane Street before Oct. 2025

Oct 2, 7:25 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

3.4%chance

262348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2186

891

Will our Steam game Heartseeker surpass 1000 sales by Oct 5th 2031 (10th anniversary of release)?

Dec 2, 3:35 AMOct 6, 3:59 AM

87.19%chance

341513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2055

710

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Oct 21, 4:37 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

74.44%chance

301118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1733

974

OpenPhil's credibility will be much lower in Jan 2025 than Oct 2023

Oct 14, 5:37 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

13956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

886

Will manuscript typeset with Typst be accepted in major journals by Oct. 2025?

Oct 2, 4:35 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

22.88%chance

10421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

702

403

Will Dick Cheney live to see a new largest Prime number? (Last one - Oct 21 2024)

Oct 21, 3:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73%chance

12220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1275

1017

Meta-Learning Compositionality (MLC) in state of the art AI models by Oct. 2025?

Oct 26, 11:00 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

19.43%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

81

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