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Prediction markets for Octo

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

14927430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8092

5898

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

79.26%chance

3812236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

639

Will Sun get a girlfriend before October 12, 2027?

Oct 16, 8:01 PMOct 11, 3:00 PM

28.09%chance

383511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5453

4042

Will a super-intelligent octopus kill us all in the next 100 years?

Apr 17, 5:04 PMApr 17, 11:59 PM

6.98%chance

121603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2259

826

Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?

Aug 22, 11:03 PMDec 1, 12:59 AM

62.43%chance

251389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5350

4932

Will octopuses be the first species we uplift?

Feb 14, 2:06 PMJan 14, 2:04 PM

11.1%chance

521113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

971

Will China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls still be in effect on November 30, 2026?

Sep 23, 1:13 PMNov 30, 12:00 AM

85.1%chance

11903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1620

851

Will there be 5000 people cryopreserved in China before October 2028?

Jul 25, 5:32 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

19.4%chance

16428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

914

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will Ukraine control Slavyansk at the end of October 2027?

Jun 3, 10:40 PMOct 31, 9:59 PM

60.57%chance

5151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

990

Exit valuation of Octo (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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