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Prediction markets for Octo

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.4%chance

14926930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7592

6014

OpenAI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

2017709

OptionProbability

Above $1T

Above $1.5T

Above $2.5T

Above $4T

87

78

12

2

Anthropic valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3216759

OptionProbability

Above $1T

Above $1.5T

Above $2.5T

Above $4T

97

92

35

4

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

17.1%chance

8712848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

1241

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

219

Anthropic IPO in October?

Sep 7, 6:14 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

3.53%chance

3911121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4419

108

Kimi Moonshot AI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3211008

OptionProbability

Above $50B

Above $100B

Above $200B

Above $400B

92

46

11

5

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

16.24%chance

203737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

229

Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?

Aug 22, 11:03 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

62.21%chance

241358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5320

4950

Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?

Sep 23, 5:09 PMOct 15, 11:59 PM

52.76%chance

16559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10048

9940

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Exit valuation of Octo (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

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