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Prediction markets for Octo

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.84%chance

14826834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7430

6053

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

379

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.59%chance

243409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

843

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

17844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Jan 10, 10:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

817

Will there be 5000 people cryopreserved in China before October 2028?

Jul 25, 5:32 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

22.16%chance

14225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

953

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Exit valuation of Octo (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

340

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