Odd Lots News

Liz Truss Warns UK Stuck in Economic 'Doom Loop', Urges Bank of England Overhaul

11 months ago

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

YES

10568

9573

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.3%chance

6313398

OptionVotes

YES

1023

943

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

Apr 21, 6:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.58%chance

15711472

OptionVotes

YES

2299

1843

Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)?

Dec 17, 12:00 AMDec 17, 7:59 AM

169241

OptionProbability

Mox Opal

Green Sun's Zenith

Faithless Looting

Splinter Twin

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Nov 15, 6:39 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

191864

OptionProbability

0-3

7-8

4-6

Zvi Mowshowitz Podcast/Interview 2026 Appearances

Mar 1, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41706

OptionProbability

Cognitive Revolution

Odd Lots

Complex systems

80000 hours

Ezra Klein Show

Hard Fork

Vergecast

Doom Debates

Hank Green @hankschannel

Nate Silver/Silver Bulletin

100

Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040?

Aug 4, 4:16 PMAug 4, 10:59 PM

4.23%chance

141393

OptionVotes

YES

1331

953

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

YES

1291

775

Odd Lots Predictions

Jun 27, 12:17 PMJan 2, 1:03 PM

3244

OptionProbability

Podcast guest to talk about Buy Now Pay Later in 2025

Joe believes in the term premium before 1 July 2032

NYC adopts single-stair building code before 2-Jan-2033

Podcast guest to discuss livestock gender selection tech before 28 June 2029

Podcast guest to discuss MTG card prices before Jan 1, 2027

Jerome Powell as guest before 2027

100

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What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)?

Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?

Zvi Mowshowitz Podcast/Interview 2026 Appearances

Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040?

Will I give birth before age 30?

Odd Lots Predictions

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