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Prediction markets for of the

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.04%chance

967737048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10126

9776

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.6%chance

488714842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16005

15494

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.81%chance

301639995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2722

2431

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

19%chance

876508444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2436

699

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

559505052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3523

1103

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.95%chance

812504817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57878

10544

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.49%chance

164348297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

843

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

751337522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6901

3283

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

148226409

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

45%chance

242209475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

1059

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

351180626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

783

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

291108372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5243

4828

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