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Prediction markets for of the

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10678

9273

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.3%chance

324660418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2883

2095

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.11%chance

619657288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5625

4094

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18%chance

920547754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2527

679

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58416

10485

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6715

3343

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

180289641

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

82

18

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

66%chance

286265221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

641

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2739

903

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.66%chance

22150875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

1163

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13746687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13320

9842

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