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Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

Jun 12, 1:39 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

27182508

OptionProbability

Gene Editing Therapies

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

Human-level AGI

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Space-Based Manufacturing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Quantum Computing Applications

Lunar Bases

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

Graphene semiconductor electronics

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Moon base

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

Photonic computing

Commercial asteroid mining

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Datacenters in space

Joywire

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Nuclear powered cargo ships

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Fast travel across the globe

Commercial fusion power

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Mars Base

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Changing the height of an adult at will

Von Neumann Probe

Orbital Habitats

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Fusion Drives

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Human Mind Uploading

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human sex change at chromosome level

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Changing a person's race at will

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Commercial cold fusion

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Antimatter bombs

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Time travel to the past

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

164595

OptionVotes

YES

3624

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.39%chance

72100

OptionVotes

YES

3067

326

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.03%chance

271504

OptionVotes

YES

1275

920

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

151112

OptionVotes

YES

1004

936

What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

Jul 17, 12:14 AMJul 17, 12:13 AM

8722

OptionProbability

Other

A new global pandemic

A major natural disaster affecting multiple states

Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts

A severe economic recession leading to panic buying

A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks

A recall of contaminated toilet paper products

A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry

Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews

A sudden surge in population due to mass migration

A widespread power grid failure

A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery

A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production

A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling

A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant

A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods

A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply

A major political event causing widespread uncertainty

A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage

A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment

A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories

volcano eruption

What will be true about the upcoming video game Anno 117: Pax Romana and its future DLCs [add responses]

Jun 15, 6:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12622

OptionProbability

land warfare

sea warfare

diagonal building grid

available on steam within the first 12 months after release

purpura/purple as a good

marble as a good

Colosseum can be build

players can build different temples that give bonus modifiers

some buildings can be buffed with items

water can be distributed with aqueducts

honey as a good

pottery as a good

glassware as a good

salt as a good

furniture as a good

region inspired by Greece

Volcano Disaster

some ships can be buffed with items

region inspired by Egypt

land trade routes

sewage system

slaves as a population tier

silk as a good

interactive trading system inspired by the Silk Road

Hadrian's Wall can be build

region inspired by Persia

a NPC or Item is named Jorgensen

barbarians as enemies (for the combat system)

siege engines (for the combat system)

region inspired by Germania

100

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

1046

970

Company employee count ranking change by end of year 2026?

Mar 29, 8:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3273

OptionProbability

Walmart

China Railway Construction

Volkswagen

China National Petroleum

State Grid (state owned company, Chinese electricity grid)

United States Postal Service

IBM

Accenture

Hitachi

Foxconn

Amazon

when VR becomes popular (333 milly MAU accross all metaverses), what will people call it? (resolves to multiple)

Apr 27, 4:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

9263

OptionProbability

virtual reality

the metaverse

the internet

cyberspace

virtual

The Grid

Which will happen first?

Mar 19, 5:09 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

10185

OptionProbability

AGI achieved as determined by USA unemployment exceeding 20%

A 1MW Fusion power plant connected to any electric grid

Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist

A room-temperature superconductor is discovered

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

998

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Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

What will be true about the upcoming video game Anno 117: Pax Romana and its future DLCs [add responses]

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Company employee count ranking change by end of year 2026?

when VR becomes popular (333 milly MAU accross all metaverses), what will people call it? (resolves to multiple)

Which will happen first?

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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