OptionProbability
[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)
[AUS] Red flag during qualifying
[AUS] At least 3 DNF
[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session
[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team
[AUS] winner has no WDC title
[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)
[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium
[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race
[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying
[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race
[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)
[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race
[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium
[JAP] Antonelli wins the race
[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying
[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race
[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race
[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race
[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions
[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying
[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race
[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] Red flag during qualifying
[MON] Red flag during the race
[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track
[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race
[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[MON] Three different teams on the podium
[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)
[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)
[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BAR] Hamilton on the podium
[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5
[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)
[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes
[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits
[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying
[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship
[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying
[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4
[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)
[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race
[SPA] Red flag in qualifying
[SPA] Antonelli wins the race
[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3
[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium
[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10
[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2
[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3
[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4
[HUN] Antonelli on the podium
[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10
Leave it open for the upcoming GP
[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUS] Yellow flag first lap
[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)
[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day
[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session
[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session
[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)
[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start
[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped
[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race
[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium
[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)
[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)
[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?
[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF
[JAP] Yellow flag first lap
[JAP] Red flag in qualifying
[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying
[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3
[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)
[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)
[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues
[JAP] Verstappen on the podium
[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race
[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race
[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race
[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race
[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race
[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race
[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race
[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race
[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race
[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes
[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race
[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race
[BAR] Mercedes driver wins
[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4
[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying
[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)
[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium
[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race
[AUT] Red flag during qualifying
[AUT] Physical safety car during the race
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3
[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)
[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)
[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)
[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race
[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)
[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race
[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)
[GBR] The same driver wins both races
[GBR] Red flag during the main race
[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying
[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds
[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race
[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race
[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race
[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race
[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying
[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)
[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race
[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race
[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6
[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying
[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS
[HUN] Ferrari pole position
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3
[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10
[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium
[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Gene Editing Therapies
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
ASI
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Human-level AGI
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Space-Based Manufacturing
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Seafloor Mining Robots
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Quantum Computing Applications
Graphene semiconductor electronics
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Photonic computing
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Commercial asteroid mining
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Datacenters in space
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.
Joywire
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Fast travel across the globe
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Commercial fusion power
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Nuclear powered cargo ships
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Mars Base
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Human Mind Uploading
Changing the height of an adult at will
Orbital Habitats
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Fusion Drives
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Von Neumann Probe
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Human sex change at chromosome level
Changing a person's race at will
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Commercial cold fusion
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
Antimatter bombs
96
95
94
93
90
87
87
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
81
80
77
77
76
76
75
75
74
74
73
72
70
69
68
67
67
66
64
63
61
60
57
57
52
52
50
49
49
47
45
45
43
42
41
40
39
39
39
37
37
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
29
29
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
22
21
18
17
14
10
8
6
6
6
5
4
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
3067
326
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1275
920
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1004
936
OptionProbability
Because a human directed it to do so
an open source model
A proprietary model
A rogue AI agent acting autonomously
A cyber-physical system malfunction
Military system error
A combination of multiple models
Source unknown/untraceable
an openAI model
Biological agent synthesis/release
Financial system collapse
Due to poor resource allocation (i.e. the AI is responsible for, and fails to continue medicine/food/water stability to a place where human decisionmaking previously successfully did)
A Google model
an Anthropic model
Infrastructure/power grid failure
Accidental release of research code
A nation-state model
Automated social manipulation/misinformation
A Meta model
A Microsoft model
62
49
47
46
45
45
45
45
41
41
41
41
30
28
28
28
26
26
21
21
OptionProbability
Other
A new global pandemic
A major natural disaster affecting multiple states
A severe economic recession leading to panic buying
A recall of contaminated toilet paper products
Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts
A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks
A widespread power grid failure
A major political event causing widespread uncertainty
A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry
Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews
A sudden surge in population due to mass migration
A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery
A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production
A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling
A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant
A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods
A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply
A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage
A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment
A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories
volcano eruption
22
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
OptionProbability
land warfare
sea warfare
diagonal building grid
available on steam within the first 12 months after release
purpura/purple as a good
marble as a good
Colosseum can be build
players can build different temples that give bonus modifiers
some buildings can be buffed with items
water can be distributed with aqueducts
honey as a good
pottery as a good
glassware as a good
salt as a good
furniture as a good
region inspired by Greece
Volcano Disaster
some ships can be buffed with items
region inspired by Egypt
land trade routes
sewage system
slaves as a population tier
silk as a good
interactive trading system inspired by the Silk Road
Hadrian's Wall can be build
region inspired by Persia
a NPC or Item is named Jorgensen
barbarians as enemies (for the combat system)
siege engines (for the combat system)
region inspired by Germania
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
85
84
81
78
63
59
55
55
55
50
45
45
45
45
37
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1046
970
OptionProbability
Walmart
China Railway Construction
Volkswagen
China National Petroleum
State Grid (state owned company, Chinese electricity grid)
United States Postal Service
IBM
Accenture
Hitachi
Foxconn
Amazon
68
59
52
51
50
50
50
48
48
46
41
OptionProbability
virtual reality
the metaverse
the internet
cyberspace
virtual
The Grid
73
24
23
21
20
13
OptionProbability
AGI achieved as determined by USA unemployment exceeding 20%
A 1MW Fusion power plant connected to any electric grid
Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist
A room-temperature superconductor is discovered
32
27
23
19
