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Prediction markets for offensive

Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?

Aug 12, 5:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2%chance

6124332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?

May 22, 8:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.31%chance

466809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2669

375

1 day before the explosion, what will be the % at the linked market about "nuclear offensive detonation in 2025"?

Aug 15, 4:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85945

OptionProbability

Explosion does not happen

[0%, 10%)

[10%, 20%)

[20%, 30%)

[30%, 40%)

[40%, 50%)

>50%

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30%chance

375314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

671

If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?

Oct 23, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

4.3%chance

233820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2718

806

Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080?

Jul 19, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.34%chance

211443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1193

741

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40.77%chance

201028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

418

Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

80.23%chance

9736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

331

141

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.66%chance

21717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

915

Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov

Apr 3, 11:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.11%chance

20700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

860

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2030?

Mar 31, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.93%chance

12245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

973

Who will be the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year?

May 13, 2:46 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Ja'Marr Chase

Saquon Barkley

Jahmyr Gibbs

Derrick Henry

Other

20

20

20

20

20

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