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Prediction markets for Offer for Sale

IPOs in 2026?

Dec 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5313584

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Once Upon a Farm

Cerebras

Anthropic

Discord

Applied Intuition

Mistral AI

OpenAI

Vanta

Ripple Labs

Stripe

Glean

Remote

Deel

Celonis

Anduril

Ramp

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac

Databricks

Brex

xAI

100

100

100

67

54

18

18

17

16

15

15

15

13

13

12

12

12

10

10

8

5

2

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

277959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

597

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.83%chance

202800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2870

348

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

231483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

835

Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.87%chance

111218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1681

595

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

55%chance

191041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

989

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

36.25%chance

15929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

754

Will Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?

Apr 14, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.9%chance

3650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030?

Apr 14, 6:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.26%chance

4449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

690

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?

May 6, 12:07 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

57.08%chance

8107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

66

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