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Prediction markets for Offer for Sale

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

277959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

597

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.25%chance

91080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1614

620

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

55%chance

191041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

989

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

34.33%chance

13898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?

Apr 14, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.9%chance

3650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6572

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

27

21

16

12

7

6

6

6

Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030?

Apr 14, 6:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.26%chance

4449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

690

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?

Feb 2, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.51%chance

12212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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