Office News

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855577

OptionVotes

YES

119340

2476

How will Trump leave office?

Mar 13, 8:47 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

526234248

OptionProbability

At the end of his term in 2029.

He will die before the end of his term.

He will resign (impeached or not) before the end of his term.

He will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will not be repealed, but he will remain in power through unconstitutional means after January 21, 2029

He will be removed by a 25th Amendment action before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will be repealed and he will win re-election to a third term.

He will be overthrown in a violent coup (military or otherwise) and forced out of office. (If this happens, related answers that may occur like death and resignation will resolve NO).

Other

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

Jun 2, 11:07 PMJan 20, 11:44 PM

16%chance

23573956

OptionVotes

YES

2291

436

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.17%chance

6062532

OptionVotes

YES

56934

7037

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Jan 29, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

3327282

OptionProbability

Never.

2028

2027

2025

2026

2029

Sometime after 2029

When will Trump leave office as President?

Nov 8, 2:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3627038

OptionProbability

2029 or later

2027

2026

2028

2025

Will Trump get a third term in office?

Jan 21, 7:45 PMJan 29, 5:59 AM

5.85%chance

7425147

OptionVotes

YES

4012

249

Prediction markets for Office

Prediction markets for Office

Prediction markets for Office

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

How will Trump leave office?

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

When will Trump leave office as President?

Will Trump get a third term in office?

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Will the next president die while in office?

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

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