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Microsoft Pushes to Retain OpenAI Access After AGI Milestone

4 days ago

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.86%chance

265496716

OptionVotes

YES

20131

6741

How will Trump leave office?

Mar 13, 8:47 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

355106182

OptionProbability

At the end of his term in 2029.

He will die before the end of his term.

He will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.

He will resign (impeached or not) before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will not be repealed, but he will remain in power through unconstitutional means after January 21, 2029

He will be removed by a 25th Amendment action before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will be repealed and he will win re-election to a third term.

Other

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

Jun 2, 11:07 PMJan 20, 11:44 PM

18%chance

20347942

OptionVotes

YES

2134

469

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

3.36%chance

5944351

OptionVotes

YES

38965

7534

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Jan 29, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

3227232

OptionProbability

Never.

2028

2027

2025

2026

2029

Sometime after 2029

Will Trump get a third term in office?

Jan 21, 7:45 PMJan 29, 5:59 AM

4.13%chance

6718615

OptionVotes

YES

4816

208

When will Trump leave office as President?

Nov 8, 2:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3112907

OptionProbability

2029 or later

2027

2028

2025

2026

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Jul 11, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.01%chance

488728

OptionVotes

YES

3302

2266

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.01%chance

515685

OptionVotes

YES

1362

734

Will the next president die while in office?

Aug 2, 5:44 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

18%chance

344519

OptionVotes

YES

1195

938

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.02%chance

384335

OptionVotes

YES

2224

1817

Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

242790

OptionVotes

YES

1200

834

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Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

How will Trump leave office?

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Will Trump get a third term in office?

When will Trump leave office as President?

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will the next president die while in office?

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

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