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Prediction markets for OFT

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

18640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

876

Will "PSA: Predictions markets often have very low ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.91%chance

3550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

931

How often will I wear fur to EA/rat events before being challenged?

Jan 3, 10:05 PMJan 1, 10:02 PM

6362

OptionProbability

10+ times

6-9 times

1-5 times

Zero times

62

30

7

1

How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?

Sep 11, 11:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.32%chance

13342

OptionProbability

NO

YES

387

156

Will "Economic efficiency often undermines sociopol..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 11, 4:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

3200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

When you are rude, it's most often because...

Oct 31, 8:33 AM

180

How often do you consume cabbage in your diet?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

60

How often do you use a chatbot?

Nov 5, 6:24 PM

2060

Will Manifold report how often they were spanked as children, by gender?

Sep 20, 8:10 PM

560

How often do you fall asleep listening to some content?

Jan 21, 5:04 PM

370

Seeking recommendations for fiction which evokes a specific mood which I've found most often in magical-girl stories

Feb 12, 5:58 PM

00

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