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Prediction markets for Olympia

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

99%chance

86398803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9602

91

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.76%chance

147124531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14625

9119

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112863

Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Jul 26, 3:04 AMAug 20, 10:59 PM

0.84%chance

186105848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10837

92

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.89%chance

23194736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

1180

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

99%chance

7537838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12420

212

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.35%chance

6115082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9949

9825

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.32%chance

2410011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2446

409

West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?

Nov 21, 8:22 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

16.22%chance

353909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

587

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

30.58%chance

112544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

664

Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Classic Physique class)

Oct 29, 9:22 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Mike SommerField

Other

Urs Kalecinski

Breon Ansley

Ramon Rocha Queiroz

Jose Manuel Munoz

Michael Daboul

Wesley Vissers

Niall Darwen

Keone Pearson

26

19

14

11

9

4

4

4

4

4

Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Open class)

Oct 25, 8:25 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

27

OptionProbability

Samson Dauda

Hadi Choopan

Other

Derek Lunsford

Martin Fitzwater

Chinendu Obiekea (Andrew Jacked)

Hunter Labrada

William Bonac

Brandon Curry

Nick Walker

17

17

11

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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