OM News

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

12045

8363

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

OmniZherka vs BurkaZherka (permanent)

Apr 9, 11:30 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

46%chance

191487

OptionVotes

YES

307

101

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

11051

8806

Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) have an OMICmAge > 5yrs younger than his chronological age? [TruDiagnostic]

Jan 4, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

3488

OptionVotes

YES

497

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

1450

690

Will Saudi Arabia invade Yemen or Oman by the end of 2027?

Jun 23, 6:11 AMDec 31, 7:11 AM

32.75%chance

6259

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

41%chance

3224

OptionVotes

YES

1200

834

Will "Omniscaling to MNIST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 7:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.59%chance

2205

OptionVotes

YES

1205

970

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

YES

1026

852

Will Feng Timo have a OMICm age >10 years younger than her chronological age?

Nov 10, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.02%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

YES

OM News

Prediction markets for OM

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Prediction markets for OM

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

OmniZherka vs BurkaZherka (permanent)

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) have an OMICmAge > 5yrs younger than his chronological age? [TruDiagnostic]

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Will Saudi Arabia invade Yemen or Oman by the end of 2027?

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Will "Omniscaling to MNIST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Feng Timo have a OMICm age >10 years younger than her chronological age?

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

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