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@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

OmniZherka vs BurkaZherka (permanent)

Apr 9, 11:30 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

46%chance

191487

OptionVotes

YES

307

101

Will Ilhan Omar lose her citizenship by the end of 2026?

Sep 19, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.19%chance

13844

OptionVotes

YES

668

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

1450

690

Will Saudi Arabia invade Yemen or Oman by the end of 2027?

Jun 23, 6:11 AMDec 31, 7:11 AM

32.75%chance

6259

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

YES

1026

852

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

45.85%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

1087

920

Will latch.bio, retro.bio, mox, or lighthaven get a libernovo Omni dynamic ergonomic chair by eoy2031

Nov 9, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will OMICmAge have a standard deviation lower than GrimAge2?

Sep 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

If Trump is elected in 2024, will omega-6 be listed on US food labels by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

39.02%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will Feng Timo have a OMICm age >10 years younger than her chronological age?

Nov 10, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.02%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

Will Guido Putignano win the Ordine al Merito della Repubblica Italiana (OMRI) by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:43 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

OmniZherka vs BurkaZherka (permanent)

Will Ilhan Omar lose her citizenship by the end of 2026?

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Will Saudi Arabia invade Yemen or Oman by the end of 2027?

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Will latch.bio, retro.bio, mox, or lighthaven get a libernovo Omni dynamic ergonomic chair by eoy2031

Will OMICmAge have a standard deviation lower than GrimAge2?

If Trump is elected in 2024, will omega-6 be listed on US food labels by 2030?

Will Feng Timo have a OMICm age >10 years younger than her chronological age?

Will Guido Putignano win the Ordine al Merito della Repubblica Italiana (OMRI) by EOY2060?

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