On Assignment News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Fair elections in 2028

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A major war in Asia occurs

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump says a racial slur

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

Approval < 25%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

New national park created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Cannabis is federally legalized

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

YES

YES

If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.

People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align AI.

We can measure the variance in confidence between any two intelligent agent's finite list of various propositions they've evaluated.

Analytic philosophers have had a mechanistically interpretable process (analytic reasoning) for aligning each other for thousands of years.

Analytic arguments can be contained in constitutions.

If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.

Getting paid for analytically reasoning within a decentralized constitution is the same thing as getting paid to align ASI.

Krantz can decentrally align humanity while controlling disclosure and acheive game theoretic parity of rational agents.

The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.

Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.

This is a convenient place to deny the argument from Krantz - https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6

If 'Krantz' as an idea is more disruptive than Bitcoin was, then all the batshit crazy predictions @krantz has made make more sense.

There’s more to life than AI alignment

A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.

Krantz is aimed at rapidly scaling a generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.

Someone ought add the propositions from this market (https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/free-mana-can-manifold-change-ais-o?r=S3JhbnR6) to this one.

If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.

Danny Sheehan deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.

A solution to defining Wittgenstein's perfect language is the instrumental mechanism that is sufficiently capable of defining truth in a way that interpretably aligns AI decentrally.

This is printing money.

The founding fathers understood how to align artificial superintelligence (by allowing individuals to vote on a decentralized constitution).

We should krantz (the process of evaluating Krantz).

We should know whether we are aligned with each other.

Aligning Krantz (the constitution of all propositions) is the last job humans need to do.

The process of "fairly aligning AI" is the same process as "fairly voting on a consistent language".

If we build mechanistically uninterpretable superintelligence, everybody dies.

I consent to having my opinions, which have been verified by me within krantz, to be used in natural law petitions to advocate on my behalf.

If everyone can prove what they want government to do, we wouldn't need a government.

People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align the government.

What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".

For any degree N that you want an AI to be aligned, there exists K an amount of Krantz data that can interpretably acheive that alignment.

If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.

The primary economic mechanisms in the world should be aimed at determining whether propositions are true.

If we recorded every proposition on a blockchained ledger that we allowed everyone to express their confidence on, we would all communicate orders of magnitude better and solve all the problems in a transparent public domain.

Wiggenstien's compatabilitism is correct and every philosophy/religion is an accurate expression of truth (natural law) in a unique imperfect language.

All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.

The "particles" in the standard model are actually just abstract points in flat space that represent modular series of events.

The standard model is a finite subset of the infinite set of modular events that exist.

We should all be aligned with each other.

Krantz is a culture of language movement.

We can stop further dangerous scaling of ML based AI if Eliezer Yudkowsky listens to Krantz.

Aliens are real.

If someone allows ASI to be grown, they are either not in control of the planet or incompetent.

A congressman's primary job is to survey his constituency on what actions he should take.

It will be a philosopher of language that aligns AI.

Aliens being real is more important for the public to know than the existential risk of ASI.

If competent people are in charge, they will not allow ASI to be grown.

The X platform could easily be converted into a decentralized school that secures a job and means for competition for everyone in a post labor economy.

It's worth paying people to vote on these because it's really helpful to see everyone's opinion.

If Krantz is a man AND all men are logical THEN Krantz is logical.

Artificial superintelligence is a paraphrase of a society effectively communicating via the krantz mechanism.

An ideal economy directly rewards valuable contributions and verification of a decentralized ledger of record that everyone can access and work for.

If you can think of important facts that should be evaluated, you should put them here.

Our social contract should retroactively reward contributions to the public domain.

The rules that define the operation of this function can be defined within the function.

This system should allow the construction of arguments where each proposition is a link to another proposition on the list.

The X platform should be an open feed of propositions like this such that any humanity verified person can earn credit for defining a confidence and importance.

Natural law entitles humans the right to define propositions like this on a decentralized ledger such that if they are important to society, then society will have the means to reward that declaration.

If there were a decentralized constitution (like this) that every human could freely and securely add propositions to and vote their confidence and importance on, then government, corporations and money would be obsolete.

Providing input to this function (at scale) is the only job we need to maintain autonomy from superintelligence.

We ought build a school that fairly pays citizens to learn how to be good citizens AND this is a function that does that THERFORE we ought build this.

This is what the founding fathers wanted (a collective state controlled by a constitution that everyone can vote on instead of representatives that make decisions for us).

We have the technology to allow everyone citizen to directly vote on the constitution.

These propositions ought have primary keys that can be referenced in logical expressions.

The distinction between 'growing' ASI (using trillions of dollars of GPUs and oil) and 'training' ASI (using krantz collective reasoning) is important.

Krantz data is money.

This is what the X feed ought look like (a feed of propositions that we can earn money for evaluating), because that would allow us to communicate more effectively as a society.

We could be printing our own money by communicating well.

If a decentralized interpretable superintelligence paid individuals to answer true/false questions that help it align the truth, it could use that truth to control the world.

What it means for two intelligent agents to "be aligned" is what it means for two intelligent agents to "have zero variance between their confidences of every proposition they have ever thought of".

The max anyone should wager on a given proposition is 100 because your wager is intended to represent your confidence.

The Universe is infinite, continuous, and filled with infinite consciousness.

The purpose of life is to communicate.

Evil is a specific form of communication (primative).

Humans ought focus on mining krantz data instead of coprimes.

If we can prove people will not do bad things in the future, there is no reason to punish them for bad things they have done in the past.

The only justified fear, is the fear of ignorance (partial knowledge).

Intellectual full spectrum dominance is the most noble aim.

If we had a tremendous amount of krantz data, we could use a simple interpretable gofai algorithm to determine the most beneficial proposition a given user ought evaluate next (based on the variance of their ontology with society).

You can map full strings of complex arguments (like the entirety of Fermat's last theorem) on a system of this nature.

Intelligent agents evolve through 4 specific forms of peer control (communication) first is physical, second is reputational, third is emotional, and forth is rational.

There is a hierarchy of communication (4, lowest) physical (3) reputation (2) emotional (1, highest) rational.

The reason we punish people for doing bad things is to prevent them from doing bad things in the future.

The speed limit of light is a property intrinsic to the particles in the standard model and doesn't apply to non-standard particles.

Society Library has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.

Manifold should consider these changes.

The ultimate moral good is to communicate.

If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.

We can prove what we want government (or a superintelligence) to do.

The bitcoin community should buy X from Elon and convert it into a decentralized school that gives people abstract points for doing philosophy.

ASI would not kill everyone if we actually trained it.

Money only has value if other people understand why it has value.

CYCCORP has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.

The message of krantz is being suppressed because it is not understood properly.

If our intellectual labor is not fairly rewarded, we are not truly free.

Aligning AI is an infinite task (it can't be acheived, only approximated).

Someone ought add the propositions from this market to this one (https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/free-mana-can-manifold-change-ais-o?r=S3JhbnR6).

Open immigration should be allowed into the US.

The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true.

The Hodge conjecture is true.

In three space dimensions and time, given an initial velocity field, there exists a vector velocity and a scalar pressure field, which are both smooth and globally defined, that solve the Navier–Stokes equations.

The Riemann hypothesis is true.

P = NP

Yang–Mills theory exists and satisfies the standard of rigor that characterizes contemporary mathematical physics, in particular constructive quantum field theory.

The mass of all particles of the force field predicted by the Yang-Mills theory are strictly positive.

If we all share the same confidence for every proposition, we are all aligned with each other.

Wittgenstein's perfect language meets the worthy successor criteria.

My congressman ought be responsible for acknowledging my expressed opinions and acting in accordance with them.

Induction is not justified. (Hume's problem)

Nature is uniform. (principle of uniformity in nature)

Aliens are real and we are in a simulation to learn how to communicate.

We can measure whether two intelligent agents are aligned.

ASI would kill everyone if we actually grew it.

Abortions are ethically bad.

Abortions should be illegal.

P(doom) is less than 0.1.

Our information economy allows poor people to insert important ideas into the public domain such that others will find them if they ought to.

The electron is a point particle.

Other

Krantz (the abstract decentralized free market of propositions that everyone competes to assign confidence and importance values to).

The United Nations

United States Government

Open AI

Anthropic

Google

Society Library

Wikipedia

Community Notes

Harvard

Open Research

Fox News

MSNBC

MIT

The Bible

Singularity Net

The Networkstate

Released by house committee.

Passes house.

Assigned to senate committee.

Released by senate commitee.

A version passed by senate.

Signed by both house and senate/gets put in front of president

Other

Becomes law.

NO

Critically Endangered

Extinct in the Wild

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Other

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Endangered

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Extinct

New Conservation Status

Not Evaluated

Vulnerable

Least Concern

Near Threatened

YES

NO