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Prediction markets for On Close

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

15.62%chance

9310701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

290

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?

Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.08%chance

246791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1607

622

Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025?

Jan 25, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.08%chance

342658

OptionVotes

NO

YES

319

31

Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing)

Jun 15, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.2%chance

222512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2828

816

Will The NASDAQ Close above 20,000 on December 31st, 2025?

Jan 17, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.13%chance

131470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

442

23

Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?

Jan 2, 1:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.46%chance

121350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

65

Standalone Twilight Princess HD on Switch 2 before market close?

Aug 1, 4:08 PMAug 2, 4:05 PM

19.11%chance

31084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2058

486

S&P 500 closes higher on December 31st 2025 than December 31st 2024

Dec 17, 9:41 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

98.02%chance

171075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

704

14

BTC closes over $130k on Dec 31?

Nov 5, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.25%chance

61072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

889

11

How many Manifold markets will close on January 1st, 2030?

Mar 22, 5:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8594

OptionProbability

100+

300+

500+

1,000+

2,000+

3,000+

4,000+

5,000+

7,500+

10,000+

50,000+

20,000+

100,000+

96

74

66

66

50

50

50

50

50

50

48

41

19

Will there be a race of commercial self-driving cars on a closed race track by end of 2029.

Sep 26, 3:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.11%chance

6260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

798

NVDA close price on Dec 31st?

Dec 5, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

213

OptionProbability

Above $180

Above $190

Above $200

Above $210

59

50

45

40

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