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Prediction markets for On Close

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

26.32%chance

889636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

432

Bitcoin closes above $115K on August 14?

Aug 7, 7:03 AMAug 15, 6:59 AM

91.49%chance

276067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3279

305

Bitcoin close price on August 16?

Aug 10, 7:44 AMAug 17, 6:59 AM

275074

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?

Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.73%chance

163820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing)

Jun 15, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.2%chance

222512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2828

816

Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?

Jan 2, 1:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.67%chance

91068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

39

Standalone Twilight Princess HD on Switch 2 before market close?

Aug 1, 4:08 PMAug 2, 4:05 PM

19.88%chance

31034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2008

498

Will The NASDAQ Close above 20,000 on December 31st, 2025?

Jan 17, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.83%chance

10922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025?

Jan 25, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

19670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

How many Manifold markets will close on January 1st, 2030?

Mar 22, 5:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8594

OptionProbability

100+

300+

500+

1,000+

2,000+

3,000+

4,000+

5,000+

7,500+

10,000+

50,000+

20,000+

100,000+

96

74

66

66

50

50

50

50

50

50

48

41

19

Will there be a race of commercial self-driving cars on a closed race track by end of 2029.

Sep 26, 3:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.11%chance

6260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

798

Will The Dow Close above 45,000 on December 31st, 2025?

Feb 6, 6:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.53%chance

12130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

65

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