On My Mind News

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Other

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Someone solves agent foundations

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Other

Crazy Elon

“drug addict elon” or similar

Spacey Elon

subsidy elon

Loser Elon

Whiny Elon

The Man Who Lost His Mind

Entitled elon

Angry elon

Incel Elon

government subsidy guy

Leon Musk

Train wreck Elon

slippery eel / eel elon

Icky Elon

musk the moocher

Mr mars

muskrat elon / elon muskrat

Delusional elon

evil elon

rocket boy / rocket man (like kim jong un)

felon elon / felon musk / elon felon

elon husk

ozempic elon

elmo

Phony Stark

Failed Elon

Space Cadet

Exploding Rocket Man

DOGE Boy

No nickname (ONLY RESOLVES YES IF HIS NICKNAME IS "NO NICKNAME")

Vriska Serket

Elongated Muskrat

Melon Husk

Alien Elon/ Elon the Alien

Mars Man

ev elon

Slimy Elon

Illegal Elon

Emo Elon

Little Elon

Ketamine Elon

Mediocre Musk

Fat Elon

Klon

Space Boy

E Elon

ET Elon

Elon of the Crimson Blade

Medicare Elon

Melon

Xanax

Ketamelon

mental musk

marsboy musk

Elon Melon

Murky Musk

Ketamine Karen

resolves no

jetbrain

elonious munk

Lying Elon

Traitor Elon / Elon the Traitor / Tesla Traitor (anything with Traitor)

Musky Elon

N/A

Oh no!

Elon The Con

Jumping/Jumpy Elon/Musk

Low IQ Elon

Erratic Elon

Buddy

Friend Elon

Great Elon

Fail-on

Eblon

Extraterrestrial

solar

Kooky elon

The Best President

Moron Musk

squealin elon

African Elon / afrikaan elon

autistic Elon

immigrant elon

Evil Musk

Elon musksnake

That guy

Eloon

(This option will not resolve yes)

Elon the idiot

Schemin' Elon

Elon the Pawn

Off the Rails Elon

Mr Musk

Yilong Ma

Mr Elon

Mad Musk

Radical Left Lunatic Elon (or something like that)

Gene Editing Therapies

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Human-level AGI

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Bioprinting

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Quantum Computing Applications

Space-Based Manufacturing

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Seafloor Mining Robots

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Joywire

Commercial fusion power

Britain finishes HS2

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Lunar Bases

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Commercial asteroid mining

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Space-to-Earth power stations

Fusion Drives

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

Mars Base

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Changing the height of an adult at will

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Orbital Habitats

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Changing a person's race at will

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Human sex change at chromosome level

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

Time travel to the future

Vacuum Airships

Antimatter bombs

Human Mind Uploading

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Commercial cold fusion

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

Space Elevator

Faster then Light Propulsion

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Hades

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Escape Academy

Split Fiction

Don't Starve

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

scarlet hollow

Tokimeki Memorial

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

Bokura

The Stanley Parable

Stardew Valley

Mini Motorways

Children of Morta

Detroit: Become Human

We Were Here Too

Splendor (tabletop game)

Castle Crashers

Timberborn

Terraria

Goragoa

Spiritfarer

Minecraft

Beyond: Two Souls

Chants of Sennaar

Patch Quest

We Were Here

Wild Woods

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Baldur's Gate 3

Hades 2

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Glider (1988)

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Human: Fall Flat

Trine 2

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Magicka

Mind over Magnet

Bean and nothingness

Yume Nikki

Space Station 13

999

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Hyperrogue

Induction

Akane

Zero Time Dilemma

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Morrowind

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

We Were Here Together

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Mario Party

Exploding kittens

The House of DaVinci

Tunic

Moving Out

Moving Out

Fez

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

CrossCode

Islands of Insight

Outer Wilds

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Monopoly

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Wingspan

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Teardown

YES

Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.

imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv

Biden voted for trump

There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US

The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines

The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria

Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight

Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain

5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

Aliens

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

Other

OpenAI

Meta

Google

Deep Mind

Anthropic

Other

Before humanity colonizes the universe, we must ensure that the future we would build is one worth living in.

Digital minds research is an important and neglected approach to AI safety.

Fun Fact: If you put “fun fact” before a completely made up statement, people are 69% more likely to believe it.

Past-you may have been a willing and enthusiastic sacrifice to present-you, and assuming you'll remain wiser, it was a worthwhile trade.

It's a good idea to buy lots of Microsoft stock right now

It's a good idea to short lots of Microsoft stock right now

If you sacrificed what you valued the most in order to survive, then from viewpoint of past-you you-present are already as good as dead

Capitalism will collapse in 2026