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Prediction markets for One Agency Act

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.63%chance

9212061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Can AI grow corn?

Jan 23, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.57%chance

13342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?

Oct 21, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will AfD chancellorship make Germany go back to 1933 era before 2050?

Oct 3, 9:23 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

8%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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