One Life News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14169

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.61%chance

2267678

OptionVotes

YES

6755

3832

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Apr 4, 10:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.28%chance

13813297

OptionVotes

YES

5075

909

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.33%chance

438578

OptionVotes

YES

1160

825

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

97733

OptionProbability

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Mar 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Oct 2026

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

10062

2804

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

25.59%chance

151367

OptionVotes

YES

3832

2541

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

Jan 14, 1:25 PMMay 15, 6:59 AM

351192

OptionProbability

Intelligent life is evolutionarily extremely rare

Other intelligent life is too different to recognize

The nature of intelligent life is to destroy itself

Other intelligent life is hiding / communication is dangerous

Intelligent life inevitably loses interest in outside contact

Natural disasters destroy intelligent life

Intelligent life is not evolutionarily rare, but we're the first ones here

How old will I be when I die?

Mar 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.14%chance

27756

OptionProbability

YES

1022

811

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Nov 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.74%chance

12519

OptionVotes

YES

1467

936

One Life News

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

How old will I be when I die?

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

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