One Life News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

16706

12559

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

6128

4633

Will I get banned for using my newly created $100 Claude Max subscription on ClawdBot by February 15th?

Jan 25, 11:50 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

11.65%chance

9347117

OptionVotes

YES

26450

2325

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Apr 4, 10:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.26%chance

13713296

OptionVotes

YES

5088

908

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

82131

OptionProbability

Feb 2026

Jan 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

25.59%chance

151367

OptionVotes

YES

3832

2541

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

Jan 14, 1:25 PMMay 15, 6:59 AM

351192

OptionProbability

Intelligent life is evolutionarily extremely rare

Other intelligent life is too different to recognize

The nature of intelligent life is to destroy itself

Other intelligent life is hiding / communication is dangerous

Intelligent life inevitably loses interest in outside contact

Natural disasters destroy intelligent life

Intelligent life is not evolutionarily rare, but we're the first ones here

How old will I be when I die?

Mar 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.14%chance

27756

OptionProbability

YES

1022

811

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Nov 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.74%chance

12519

OptionVotes

YES

1467

936

One Life News

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Will I get banned for using my newly created $100 Claude Max subscription on ClawdBot by February 15th?

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

How old will I be when I die?

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

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