One Life News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

17782

9207

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

6128

4633

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

19679

5082

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Apr 4, 10:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.47%chance

13512366

OptionVotes

YES

4158

992

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

Jan 14, 1:25 PMMay 15, 6:59 AM

351192

OptionProbability

Intelligent life is evolutionarily extremely rare

Other intelligent life is too different to recognize

The nature of intelligent life is to destroy itself

Other intelligent life is hiding / communication is dangerous

Intelligent life inevitably loses interest in outside contact

Natural disasters destroy intelligent life

Intelligent life is not evolutionarily rare, but we're the first ones here

What will i do this year?

Jun 13, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5640

OptionProbability

Read 3 books

Not have any ideas for a Manifold Market for 10 days

Will you eat a potato (today forward, has to be straight potato)

Read one or more of: The Life You Can Save, Animal Liberation (Now), The Precipice, Superintelligence, HPMOR, Inadequate Equilibria, The Sequences, Unsong, The Scout Mindset

Lose a job

Graduate 10th grade.

Make 15,000 mana

Commit a felony.

Befriend a man named Joshua Shles. and be accused of stealing J.S.'s possessions

Run a marathon before the end of the year.

Make 100000 dollars

Get a motorcycle

Convert to Judaism

100

Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2025 ends?

Apr 15, 3:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

13578

OptionVotes

YES

243

125

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Nov 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.74%chance

12519

OptionVotes

YES

1467

936

Will any RationalAnimations video surpass the views of their old Conway's Game of Life one by the end of 2025?

Apr 14, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.77%chance

11394

OptionVotes

YES

268

173

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Mar 15, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.61%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

170

One Life News

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

What will i do this year?

Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2025 ends?

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Will any RationalAnimations video surpass the views of their old Conway's Game of Life one by the end of 2025?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

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