One Life News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.93%chance

506724947

OptionVotes

YES

16828

12117

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.98%chance

2668193

OptionVotes

YES

6211

4254

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1758396

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Oct 2026

Nov 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Apr 4, 10:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.23%chance

13913374

OptionVotes

YES

5099

907

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3111948

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

13.06%chance

184177

OptionVotes

YES

6612

1915

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

6632

3220

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

Jan 14, 1:25 PMMay 15, 6:59 AM

351192

OptionProbability

Intelligent life is evolutionarily extremely rare

Other intelligent life is too different to recognize

The nature of intelligent life is to destroy itself

Other intelligent life is hiding / communication is dangerous

Intelligent life inevitably loses interest in outside contact

Natural disasters destroy intelligent life

Intelligent life is not evolutionarily rare, but we're the first ones here

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Nov 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.66%chance

13594

OptionVotes

YES

1491

935

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026

Aug 16, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.62%chance

7105

OptionVotes

YES

147

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2027

Aug 16, 5:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.62%chance

559

OptionVotes

YES

117

One Life News

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Prediction markets for One Life

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Solution for the Fermi Paradox?

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2027

Latest stories