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Prediction markets for One Summer Day

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.87%chance

131091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

978

Prop Bet: Which individuals involved in the Epstein case will resign from their positions or be charged? (Add own)

Nov 23, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5989

OptionProbability

Option deleted. Don't vote!

Peter Nygård

Alan Dershowitz

Bill Clinton

Donald Trump

50

50

31

27

19

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73%chance

12574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

835

When will I take and pass my Comprehensive (A) Exams for my PhD?

Mar 7, 12:45 PMAug 15, 3:59 AM

3112

OptionProbability

Summer 2025

Fall 2025

Spring 2026

Spring 2025

61

34

32

24

Will Furnace Creek, Death Valley record a high temperature of at least 129.0°F by September 28, 2026 (9/28/26)?

Jun 13, 8:04 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

47.96%chance

590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?

Jun 26, 11:38 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

7.4%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

94

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