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Prediction markets for online

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.91%chance

151307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

766

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

191273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will Russia or ROC be allowed in the Olympics again before Nintendo ends online play and services for the Switch?

Jan 25, 3:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75%chance

15707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

969

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Will Kairos Power have reactors online by 2030?

Oct 16, 7:02 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

48.2%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

965

Will NYC permanently close another subway station before Nintendo ends online support for the Switch?

Jan 25, 6:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.51%chance

1197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

948

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