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Prediction markets for online

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.97%chance

1418493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2262

1776

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

16%chance

182323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

67.74%chance

10925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

875

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will Russia or ROC be allowed in the Olympics again before Nintendo ends online play and services for the Switch?

Jan 25, 3:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75%chance

15707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

969

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

Will Kairos Power have reactors online by 2030?

Oct 16, 7:02 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

37.66%chance

4650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

777

Cuttlecam livestream back online before end 2026?

Mar 24, 12:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.43%chance

5517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

711

Will NYC permanently close another subway station before Nintendo ends online support for the Switch?

Jan 25, 6:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.76%chance

11497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

676

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

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