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Prediction markets for Only

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.14%chance

234002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

921

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

432617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Apr 3, 10:02 PMApr 11, 3:59 AM

20.1%chance

372468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

804

Will the Jones Act be loosened if and only if Trump wins the presidency?

Sep 27, 8:40 PMJan 22, 6:59 AM

29.97%chance

102121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

US fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?

Aug 27, 3:32 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

45.22%chance

181060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

909

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.41%chance

29921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

899

Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Jan 1, 4:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.98%chance

3677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)

Apr 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.2%chance

10628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

53.16%chance

9475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the best Go players have played.

Jan 5, 11:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

46.98%chance

11271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

975

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

41.03%chance

4202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will "Parkinson's Heuristic: The Only Time To Do An..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 14, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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