OptionProbability
Brakes hit
Huge alignment effort
New AI paradigm
Slow and gradual capability gains in AI
Enhancing human minds and/or society
Capability limit in AI
Non-AI tech
Alignment relatively easy
Brakes not hit
Alignment unnecessary
Well-behaved AI with bad ends
Major capability limit in AI
Alignment extra hard
56
49
48
44
40
38
36
28
25
21
20
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1627
398
Other
Something ontologically shocking.
71
29
1100
556
1073
649
Sum-over-histories (path integrals) represents fundamental ontology
Retrocausality shapes histories
All decohered branches are real (Many-Worlds)
Only one classical history is real; probabilities reflect ignorance
Macroscopic recoherence of distinct histories can occur
Superdeterminism underlies a single deterministic history
It is meaningless to talk about events with definite outcomes in the past when no observer observes them
We need to talk about histories in a different theoretical context because quantum theory will ultimately be overthrown
The past is definite; the future is not
Only consistent/decoherent histories have meaningful quantum probabilities
Decoherence plus quantum Darwinism is sufficient to derive quasi-classical histories conforming to our experiences
Objective collapse selects a single history (GRW/CSL)
41
35
34
156
140
1004
999