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Prediction markets for Open AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74123174

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

81

10

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.29%chance

9634995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12277

8034

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

5.44%chance

183216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4168

240

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026

Jan 2, 7:49 AMJan 15, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

112160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

643

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.62%chance

121589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2181

459

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.72%chance

16765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1719

582

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.97%chance

12627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

826

Will USA have an authoritarian president who is openly an AI alignment or degrowth proponent by 2044?

Sep 14, 12:22 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

26.14%chance

16554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

978

Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?

May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.08%chance

16235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Jun 26, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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