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Prediction markets for Open Banking

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1609

816

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

345859

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

OAN

Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

ExxonMobil

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

25

23

22

20

19

19

17

16

14

12

10

10

8

6

WIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?

Jan 12, 2:12 AMJan 12, 2:11 AM

10.76%chance

462837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.16%chance

231866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

920

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Feb 2, 9:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11536

OptionProbability

Before August 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

Before May 1, 2026

Before June 1, 2026

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

82

66

50

50

10

0

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

Mar 4, 7:34 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

150

OptionProbability

Other

The Age of Extraction | Tim Wu

Inside the Box | David Epstein

I Am Not a Robot: My Year Using AI to Do (Almost) Everything | Joanna Stern

Steve Jobs in Exile | Geoffrey Cain

41

19

17

12

12

Would you play Endless Snake?

Aug 27, 9:59 PMApr 20, 9:59 PM

180

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