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Prediction markets for Open Beta

When will ChatGPT become proactive (instead of reactive)?

Jun 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 9:12 AM

204350

OptionProbability

before 2028 (within ~3 years)

before 2027 (within ~2 years)

later / never

before 2026 (less than a year)

62

54

39

30

Will Riot Games release their MMORPG fully or in open beta before the end of 2025?

Oct 21, 5:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

6.29%chance

254277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3470

521

When will Meta release Llama 5?

Jul 25, 8:51 PMAug 1, 4:00 PM

72112

OptionProbability

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before February 2026

Before January 2026

Before December 2025

Before November 2025

Before October 2025

Before September 2025

Before August 2025

52

51

50

44

39

34

28

24

20

12

9

7

3

Will my video game be released by the end of 2025?

Mar 6, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.94%chance

291920

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

85

Marathon hits 100K concurrent Steam players before 2026?

Apr 21, 6:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.28%chance

7538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

423

24

Will there be Netflix app for Apple Vision pro by end of 2025?

Feb 1, 8:25 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36.36%chance

7340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

90

How many Creeper World games will there be at the beginning of 2030?

Sep 25, 2:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4330

OptionProbability

7

8

6

9

10 or more

5

38

23

17

13

7

1

Will there be Spotify app for Apple Vision pro by end of 2025?

Feb 1, 8:27 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

69.33%chance

9318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221

137

Will Riot Games release their MMORPG fully or in open beta before the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 12:35 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

18.26%chance

6224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

20

Will there be YouTube app for Apple Vision pro by end of 2025?

Feb 1, 8:27 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

59.64%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

65

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