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Prediction markets for Open Edition

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45.35%chance

12757022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

610

Will I make USACO camp in 2026

Aug 30, 8:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.59%chance

269434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

894

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

1338

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

365056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3070

329

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur?

Jan 12, 10:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.53%chance

203205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1536

902

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1684

808

Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan be happily married and monogamous for life?

Feb 28, 12:05 AMMar 6, 4:59 AM

30%chance

482451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

657

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

5.01%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

481

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028?

Jun 29, 7:23 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

64.09%chance

15466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

947

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

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