Open Edition News

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

39.34%chance

12857931

OptionVotes

YES

1119

725

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543871

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will I make USACO camp in 2026

Aug 30, 8:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

3111780

OptionVotes

YES

1129

887

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

YES

2633

1338

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

3049

331

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur?

Jan 12, 10:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.53%chance

203205

OptionVotes

YES

1536

902

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

YES

1684

808

Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan be happily married and monogamous for life?

Feb 28, 12:05 AMMar 6, 4:59 AM

30%chance

482451

OptionVotes

YES

1511

657

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

5.01%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

2440

481

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028?

Jun 29, 7:23 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

64.09%chance

15466

OptionVotes

YES

1060

947

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

1199

834

Open Edition News

Prediction markets for Open Edition

Prediction markets for Open Edition

Prediction markets for Open Edition

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will I make USACO camp in 2026

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur?

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan be happily married and monogamous for life?

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028?

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

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