Open for Everyone News

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

1413

731

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

2045

552

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Jan 17, 4:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423106

OptionProbability

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Humanity spread out over independent space colonies.

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

2032

492

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Mar 30, 5:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.79%chance

16920

OptionVotes

YES

1137

909

Who will host Saturday Night Live [SNL] for the first time in the 2020s? [Mega Market]

Apr 12, 4:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6396

OptionProbability

Nikki Glaser

Simone Biles

Glenn Powell

Keanu Reeves

Florence Pugh

Ali Wong

Steven Yeun

Zendaya

Rachel McAdams

Finn Wolfhard

Tom Holland

Christian Bale

Noah Centineo

Jacob Tremblay

Zazie Beetz

Hailee Steinfeld

Olivia Cooke

Kiernan Shipka

Joaquin Phoenix

Tom Cruise

Brad Pitt

Leonardo DiCaprio

Millie Bobby Brown

Chloe Grace Moretz

Daisy Ridley

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

YES

416

404

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

257

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

May 18, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.31%chance

6161

OptionVotes

YES

209

Manifold prisoners dilemma

Feb 21, 12:10 PM

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Feb 3, 4:26 AM

820

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Prediction markets for Open for Everyone

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Who will host Saturday Night Live [SNL] for the first time in the 2020s? [Mega Market]

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

Manifold prisoners dilemma

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

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