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Prediction markets for Open Instruct

Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?

Aug 12, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.85%chance

5623393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

781

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Trump directs government against Musk before 2026 ends?

Jun 5, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

19546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

When in 2026 will OS-World Verified be saturated by AI models?

Dec 22, 1:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2100

OptionProbability

Jul-Sep 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

Jan-Mar 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

31

29

20

20

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