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Open Instruct News
Prediction markets for Open Instruct
Prediction markets for Open Instruct
Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?
Aug 12, 7:25 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
30%
chance
51
11199
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1528
655
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
18.68%
chance
40
4470
Option
Votes
NO
YES
984
823
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
64%
chance
35
1950
Option
Votes
YES
NO
999
911
Trump directs government against Musk before 2026 ends?
Jun 5, 7:35 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
38.53%
chance
16
446
Option
Votes
YES
NO
126
79
Lab protocol for safe TATP synthesis from fine-tuned LLM by 2025
Sep 18, 7:28 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
22.44%
chance
8
87
Option
Votes
YES
NO
233
140
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