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Prediction markets for Open Meetings

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6451

596

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.54%chance

3845382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27689

3612

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65%chance

17435675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

8825

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.08%chance

5529537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24482

4980

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.47%chance

391109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2089

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Will California open a new UC campus before 2030?

May 18, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.75%chance

5332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

900

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Mar 18, 4:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

54.28%chance

10212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

918

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