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Prediction markets for Open Network

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.58%chance

7634311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

52.48%chance

8912775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.73%chance

225161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

747

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Jul 5, 2:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.78%chance

643864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

978

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.63%chance

1003598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1892

1395

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

231034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

814

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?

Jul 5, 1:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.31%chance

15484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

911

By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2?

Apr 23, 12:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.96%chance

21469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

818

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