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Prediction markets for Open Records

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.08%chance

5529537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24482

4980

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

823

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

71.22%chance

353805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

550

What will John Oliver talk about on his show? [Mega Market]

Apr 15, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

263599

OptionProbability

[American] Health Care

Donald Trump (incl. his trials)

J.D. Vance

The 2024 Election

Supreme Court (or its Justices)

Israel [incl. War in Gaza]

Gun Control

Russia [incl. War in Ukraine]

Abortion access

Joe Biden

Cost of Housing / Mortgage Rates

Weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy…etc)

Infrastructure

Mark Zuckerberg (incl. Meta / Facebook / IG…etc.)

Sports gambling

Big Tech

Processed Food (incl. Nutrition Labels)

The UK

Taylor Swift

Worker Unions and/or Co-ops

Summer Olympics

Antitrust Law

The Effective Altruism and/or Rationality movements

Japan

The British Royal Family (incl. King Charles, Prince Andrew)

FIFA

North Korea

Winter Olympics

Post office

Stagnating Wages of the Average Worker

100

99

91

88

82

80

77

77

76

74

73

71

67

63

61

59

59

52

52

52

50

50

50

48

44

43

41

41

39

27

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3838

261

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.3%chance

161101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

955

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

43.42%chance

15911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028?

Apr 10, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.6%chance

20453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

889

Will there be a new “final” Beatles song this decade?

Nov 5, 9:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

10145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

979

Will a new bridge break the record for longest suspension bridge by the end of 2027? (completed and open to traffic)

Nov 30, 11:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.14%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

80

Will low-concentration cryoprotectant preserve brain rhythms in a replication study of Suda et al. 1966?

May 15, 7:30 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

50.89%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

92

88

World Aquatics Championships: Women's 50 Freestyle Winner

Aug 2, 3:37 PMAug 3, 11:35 AM

00

OptionProbability

Gretchen WALSH (USA)

Torri HUSKE (USA)

Meg HARRIS (AUS)

Other

25

25

25

25

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