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Prediction markets for Open Source AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87154421

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2028-2029

2025-2026

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

44

35

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.71%chance

667935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

867

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.78%chance

163921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

201549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:

Apr 22, 4:38 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

201158

OptionProbability

It's 2030

It's 2026 Jan

It's 2024 April

It's 2025 Jan

GPT 5 comes out

Llama 4 comes out

23

18

0

0

0

0

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.65%chance

13877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

584

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.15%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

Jun 23, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

16362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027?

Aug 8, 11:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.4%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

75

Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?

Mar 12, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.54%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

120

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