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Prediction markets for Open Source AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69113858

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

70

19

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.54%chance

4520709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11745

8426

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.58%chance

575750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

896

SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration

Oct 9, 11:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.08%chance

262162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2373

421

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.78%chance

101335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

519

Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:

Apr 22, 4:38 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

201158

OptionProbability

It's 2030

It's 2026 Jan

It's 2024 April

It's 2025 Jan

GPT 5 comes out

Llama 4 comes out

23

18

0

0

0

0

Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?

Jul 28, 4:00 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

34.62%chance

11985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.46%chance

13664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

616

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.97%chance

12627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

826

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?

Mar 12, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.54%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

120

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