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Prediction markets for Open Source AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74123174

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

81

10

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

42.19%chance

9634297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12061

8189

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.02%chance

585800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

871

SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration

Oct 9, 11:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.93%chance

274246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4389

228

Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?

Jul 28, 4:00 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

15.71%chance

131935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2317

432

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.62%chance

121589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2181

459

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.72%chance

16765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1719

582

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.97%chance

12627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

826

By 2028, given a one-page description of a task X, AI can download and fine- tune existing open source LLMs for X?

Jan 5, 11:26 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

75.02%chance

9195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

75

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Jan 17, 3:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.5%chance

8142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

289

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

Jun 23, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

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