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Prediction markets for Open Source AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87146143

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

60

26

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Dec 3, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.31%chance

647915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

876

SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration

Oct 9, 11:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.93%chance

274246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4389

228

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.78%chance

142121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2681

373

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

201549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:

Apr 22, 4:38 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

201158

OptionProbability

It's 2030

It's 2026 Jan

It's 2024 April

It's 2025 Jan

GPT 5 comes out

Llama 4 comes out

23

18

0

0

0

0

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.65%chance

13877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

584

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

8362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027?

Aug 8, 11:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.88%chance

4123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

76

Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?

Mar 12, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.54%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

120

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