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Open Thoughts News
Prediction markets for Open Thoughts
Prediction markets for Open Thoughts
Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?
Oct 17, 7:08 PM
Oct 17, 11:59 PM
69.67%
chance
19
14646
Option
Votes
NO
YES
15156
6598
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
36.35%
chance
17
7427
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1952
602
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
20.35%
chance
44
4648
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1001
753
Will the Fehmarn Belt Tunnel open in 2029 or before?
Dec 5, 10:14 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
8%
chance
8
457
Option
Votes
YES
NO
301
37
Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?
Apr 21, 11:02 PM
Apr 29, 3:59 AM
23.04%
chance
12
329
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1089
949
New Mozart work discovered before 2030
Mar 3, 6:45 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
33.14%
chance
6
196
Option
Votes
YES
NO
301
215
Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?
Nov 11, 11:36 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.48%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
NO
YES
114
88
In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?
Feb 22, 2:01 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
32.13%
chance
4
31
Option
Votes
YES
NO
141
89
Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?
Nov 20, 8:07 AM
Dec 31, 12:58 PM
47.83%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
256
236
Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?
Mar 19, 10:01 AM
47
0
Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!
Mar 9, 8:51 PM
0
0
Is José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente funny?
Aug 6, 8:38 PM
2
0
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