Open Weight Model News

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

Feb 10, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.49%chance

354569

OptionVotes

YES

4048

549

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Jun 25, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163842

OptionProbability

1.75T+

2T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

103512

OptionVotes

YES

3634

275

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

1258

795

When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable

Jul 1, 1:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9854

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26

Jun 28, 2:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.44%chance

11555

OptionVotes

YES

277

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.73%chance

18430

OptionVotes

YES

1147

1002

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10.24%chance

13402

OptionVotes

YES

412

Will Alibaba publish open weights for a Qwen 4 model on Hugging Face by November 25, 2026?

Oct 24, 9:54 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

60.77%chance

9348

OptionVotes

YES

138

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Sep 13, 11:16 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

262

OptionProbability

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)

IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)

US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

126

Open Weight Model News

Prediction markets for Open Weight Model

Prediction markets for Open Weight Model

Prediction markets for Open Weight Model

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable

An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Will Alibaba publish open weights for a Qwen 4 model on Hugging Face by November 25, 2026?

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

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