Open Weight Model News

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?

Jun 25, 3:14 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

155875

OptionProbability

1.75T+

2T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Jun 25, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163815

OptionProbability

1.75T+

2T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

Feb 10, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.52%chance

293717

OptionVotes

YES

3202

607

Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

103512

OptionVotes

YES

3634

275

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

81095

OptionVotes

YES

406

When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable

Jul 1, 1:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9854

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26

Jun 28, 2:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.36%chance

10530

OptionVotes

YES

252

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.73%chance

18430

OptionVotes

YES

1147

1002

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

22%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

188

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Sep 13, 11:16 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

262

OptionProbability

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)

IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)

US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

126

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Open Weight Model News

Prediction markets for Open Weight Model

Prediction markets for Open Weight Model

Prediction markets for Open Weight Model

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable

An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

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