OpenAI API News

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

YES

143166

70518

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10.51%chance

729656

OptionVotes

YES

2429

681

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

207697

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

14%chance

244724

OptionVotes

YES

2482

404

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

May 22, 3:54 PMMar 31, 3:49 PM

373269

OptionProbability

Will have a battery

Requires a network connection

Has a microphone

Can play music from Spotify

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Has a camera

US retail price <= $300 on launch

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Is wearable

Has notification LEDs

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Has any screen

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33088

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026 (or later)

January 2026

February 2026

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.14%chance

112824

OptionVotes

YES

1017

983

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

YES

1403

867

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

178

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

YES

1212

825

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

1020

981

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4111

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

OpenAI API News

Prediction markets for OpenAI API

Prediction markets for OpenAI API

Prediction markets for OpenAI API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

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