OpenAI API News

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

YES

114667

87209

Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?

Jun 20, 4:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.63%chance

237085

OptionVotes

YES

1619

881

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.47%chance

605883

OptionVotes

YES

1030

971

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

24.48%chance

554422

OptionVotes

YES

1187

919

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

343752

OptionVotes

YES

1245

808

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

May 22, 3:54 PMDec 31, 4:49 PM

242207

OptionProbability

Requires a network connection

Will have a battery

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Has a microphone

Has notification LEDs

Can play music from Spotify

Has a camera

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

US retail price <= $300 on launch

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

Is wearable

Has any screen

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

75.12%chance

371021

OptionVotes

YES

1123

946

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.92%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

1269

463

Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?

May 14, 8:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

2671

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

8.16%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

335

Will OpenAI provide API access to o5-mini within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

16.85%chance

6171

OptionVotes

YES

222

What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025?

Mar 8, 2:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6115

OptionProbability

OpenAI Chat Completion API

Google Vertex AI Gemini

Mistral AI Chat Completion API

Google Gemini API

OpenAI API News

Prediction markets for OpenAI API

Prediction markets for OpenAI API

Prediction markets for OpenAI API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Will OpenAI provide API access to o5-mini within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025?

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